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CL/WTI: Fundamental Review & Forecast

Published on: 01/02/2017

A contradictory situation has developed on the crude oil market. On the one hand, OPEC's agreement to reduce oil production is implemented in practice. Countries-exporters of oil are in fact reducing oil production. This has led to an increase of oil prices to $54 a barrel mark CL/WTI, with the perspective for further growth. However, with the increase of oil prices the U.S. began to increase oil production, which eliminates the effect of the achieved agreements on the reduction. Also, investors are worried that the rising oil prices will reduce oil demand. This has led to a decrease prices from 53-54 dollars per barrel to $52.

CL, H4 chart
On the other hand, the dollar is decreasing amid lower index consumer confidence in the USA and the Trump administration's accusations of an artificially low exchange rate of the EUR to get a trade advantage over the United States. Overall, there are many preconditions for further decreasing of the dollar because the President's administration showed that they are not interested in a strong USD. In addition, investors are afraid of the huge counteraction to the decrees of the President. If the dollar continues to decrease, it will lead to an increasing of the profitability of resource assets and a further growth in oil prices.

Thus, at the moment there are many prerequisites for both reduction and increasing of oil prices. However, the rates of oil continue to be in the frames of the weak upward trend that formed in November. The only change is a moving of the support line. Furthermore, there are preconditions for the formation of a flat trend. In this situation you can gain profit by trading on a price correction. The most optimal decision here is to open the long deals to buy according to the trend. This is also partly confirmed by the MACD oscillator.

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