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CL/WTI: Short Review & Forecast

Published on: 05/04/2017

Oil prices are gradually recovering and returning to their lost positions. This steady growth began two weeks ago and moved to the uptrend. There are a few factors which confirm that the rates will remain in the frames of the new uptrend, at least in the next four to six months. The main reason behind this is the seasonal increase in demand for fuel. Considering this, investors suppose that even if oil production increases in the United States, this will not increase the amount of oil on the market, and the efforts of OPEC to reduce oil production can remain noticeable.

This week prices were under pressure due to a renewal of oil production at the largest field in Libya, but this has not stopped rising prices because on the other hand, deliveries of oil from Nigeria were suspended because of the strike of the workers. In addition, the market received information regarding Iraq, which has asked to be free from the obligation to reduce oil production, disagreeing with OPEC's Agreement. Nevertheless, they have fulfilled their obligations by 98% so far.

CL, H4 chart
At the moment the market is waiting for information about the crude oil stocks in the United States. Investors confidently expect its reduction. Considering the seasonal increase in demand for oil, we can assume that the the value of oil has not yet reached its peak. Oil prices in the medium term could rise to $53-54 a barrel mark CL/WTI. However, in short-term trading, you can trust the Stochastics and MACD oscillators to open the deals to SELL in order to make a profit on the price correction, which can happen in the very near future.

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