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NZD/JPY: Short Review & Forecast

Published on: 22/03/2017

After a brief flat trend the rates of the NZD/USD pair have returned to the downward trend. The Japanese yen continues to strengthen, while the New Zealand dollar is losing positions against all currencies.

In particular, JPY has got support thanks to the recently published data about the increased volume of exports, which in February rose by 11.3%, while the import grew only by 1.2%. The trade balance, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, was 0.68. These indicators exceeded the forecasts and show good potential for the Japanese economy.

For the NZD we haven't received any data which could impact the rates and change the situation of the dollar. Last week data about the GDP only disappointed investors further because the growth was only 0.4%, against the expected 0.7%. Still, today we expect important data from the RNBZ and their decision about the interest rate. It is expected that the interest rate would remain unchanged at 1.75%. Additionally, on Friday there will be new information about the volume of exports and imports in New Zealand. Investors are positive in these indicators - in particular, they expect a positive trade balance for the first time since June 2016.

NZD/JPY, H4 chart
Considering the forecasts for the NZD, it is possible to assume that in the evening we expect a price correction as a minimum. The New Zealand dollar will stop falling and the quotes will go to the resistance line. The MACD and Stochastics oscillators unanimously confirm that now is the best moment to open the deals to BUY in short-term trading.

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