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GBP/CAD Technical Outlook after the CPI

Published on: 21/03/2017

A few minutes ago the CPI figures were released and came out 2.3% higher than expected at 2.1%, as well as higher than the previous data. As a result from the news from the UK the GBP has risen against all currencies. The pair we’ll be talking about today is GBP/CAD which rose by more than 80 pips after the news and is still rising at this moment.

The Currency pair is trading now around 1.6600 which is a key resistance area for several reasons. It’s a psychological level and is around 61.8% Fibonacci from the down wave from 1.7116 to 1.5735 - it is expected to decline from it and resume the down wave again. We have a supply zone at 1.6619 which is center for the bears and sellers; we can sell from there when the following conditions are completed.

The Stochastic indicator has reached the distribution area above 80 level and we are waiting for the 2 lines to cross above this level. The RSI is ahead to 90 level to make the distribution from there too.

The Next Few Days

Based on the analysis above, the pair is in a key resistance and supply area but we can’t sell the pair here. Instead, we have to wait for a bearish candle like a pin bar candle or an engulfing candle at a lower time frame chart like the H4 chart and sell the pair, keeping our first target at 1.6490 and the second one at 1.6400 at the SMA, which is a support level.

We have to be careful about upcoming hot news like the core retail sales today and CPI on Friday from Canada, as well as Carney's (BOE Governor) speech today.


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