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CL/WTI: Short Review & Forecast for Crude Oil

Published on: 01/03/2017

During the last few weeks oil prices have been stable, volatility on the market has decreased significantly and the upward trend is gradually becoming flat. The market received contradictory signals about further perspectives for price increases. The market is in the conditions of uncertainty, but both sides lack determining factors that would seriously affect the prices. Despite the strong statements that OPEC has met 90% of its commitment, the pressure on prices was exerted due to increasing the number of drilling rigs in the USA for a sixth consecutive week, and consequently the perspective of increasing oil extraction there. In addition, investors are worried about the increase of the crude oil reserves in the U.S. to record levels. Thus, there are worrying signals about rising oil market supply in spite the reduction in oil extraction in OPEC countries.

СL, H4 chart
Speaking of the near future of the oil market, the rates will probably continue to vary depending on the further implementation of OPEC's agreement and the level of oil reserves in the United States. If prices do not reach the level of 60 dollars per barrel, market participants are going to extend the agreement until the end of 2017, as already hinted by OPEC. We can say that the leading oil exporters aren't going to change their plans for stabilizing the market and increasing the prices.
The MACD oscillator is neutral, while the Stochastics one shows a signal to open the short deals to sell. In this situation, however, the best solution would be opening the deals to buy according to the upward trend which is still valid formally and can be restored. This deals may be effective in medium-term trading.

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