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XAU/USD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

Published on: 24/02/2017

This week the Gold rose again in price due to the weakening dollar and the uncertain political situation in the EU. The US dollar fell against most currencies amid published protocols from a Federal Reserve meeting where they fixed plans to increase interest rates in the future. However, the economic policy remains uncertain, as do the terms of increasing the rates. Furthermore, investors were disappointed with the recent data about increasing in the number of applications for unemployment allowance - the number of such applications was three times higher than expected and the PMI, which fell in February to 53.9 due to recession in the services sector, which occupies a key position in the U.S. economy. The situation in the EU is more stable compared to the American economy, but the uncertain political component will pull the Euro down.

On the other hand, we can see that rates are in the frames of a rapid upward trend, with no symptoms of its completion, but March usually isn't good for the Gold price's growth. However, this year may be different due to changes in the political situation of the EU and the USA. If the Gold continues to rise, it is only due to the uncertain economic and political situation affecting other trading instruments. In spite of the EU where the situation won't change in the near future, things in the USA can change quickly and the U.S dollar may go up again, which mean the Gold will again be under the pressure from the American currency.

GOLD, H4 chart
The MACD and Stochastics oscillators are signaling us to open short deals against the trend. This is the right decision, despite the absence of signs of a trend reversal because after today's growth, it will be possible to get profit on the price correction.

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